What is more of a risk to America’s, India and Italy health, COVID-19 or an American economy in recession

 more of a risk to America’s, India and Italy health, COVID-19 or an American economy in recession

1.) What we do not get in the recession due to Kovid-19. If the US government said "we order every person to go to work, we stop any business from reducing hours or shutting down" yet you're an economy in free-fall. There is no way that an airline or cruise ship or resort would be profitable. All types of industries are shut down because people choose to live in the house voluntarily.

More expenses…. The reality is that even without lost income, the uncertainty of the next year means a lot of people (not all, but a lot) will not spend the money they were going to spend. He did not buy that new house. That new car. They did not take that holiday to Europe or Asia because they are not sure if it will be safe or if they are stranded abroad. He did not expand his business and hired new workers. They did not go to college (because the semester may be completely online). An uncertain climate affects investment and spending - and with it down, the economy slips. And that there is not even any lost income (due to the closure of business or unemployment), there is little confidence in how the future will play out.

Here's an example: American business is very competitive. Restaurants, department stores, speciality stores - they do not make 30% profits. Most get 2–4% gain. So, if only the elderly, retired and immune-related people stay at home due to personal risk, then a whole bunch of businesses are still running without any shutdown. And, by the way, if we don't do some kind of shutdown and social disturbances, then millions of people (dead people don't do any shopping). And he is also a hammer on the economy.

You see, this is a copy-or-no. It is incorrect to mention "Do we restart the economy or can we affect COVID-19?" We don't have a healthy economy until we handle COVID-19. It's really that easy

 2.) A> COVID 19 cause a global economic collapse that is worse than the great recession of 2008.

This is quite possible.

Bernard Connolly observed that the results of bringing down interest rates are that there's an attempt increase within the target capital stock held by consumers and firms to the current capital stock, and this adjustment is spread over time. Central banks need to keep yields low to maintain the current level of demand.

Qi is walking off the road. The yield of the German 30-year bundle is -0.30%. You give money to the government for the privilege of lending it money. How much can it reduce in the medium term?

The emerging effect of coronaviruses is that isolation measures constitute both a supply shock and a demand shock. Supply shocks will push prices up and in this context, the central bank will eliminate it. This will lead to timely inflation and once inflation increases it is the end of the road for QE.

Also, life insurance and pension funds have been forced by regulation to purchase bonds for long periods so that there is no obligation on their yields. They are not sensitive - they just have to do what the regulator tells them. Life expectancy was increasing till recently and all the attention is on what happens if it keeps growing. I personally have been occupying life expectancy for a few years, now depending on the possibility of catching lifestyle factors and witnessing an epidemic.

Firms reduce their mortality risk but do not cross gamma between life expectancy and duration. So if we look at the life expectancy being revised in the face of epidemics, it is quite likely that they will be eliminated for a very long period. This is a fairly large number not just for Britain but connects it in Europe and America.

After such a long period I think the virus is the beginning of the end for the bond market, and for Qi. They will try to do more QE, but someday very soon they will do more QE and sell bonds because the inflation component dominates any drop in real yields. It will be a recession in almost every asset.

But the more immediate problem is that to control the virus you need to take strong isolation measures. These, unfortunately, attack the economic complexity and division of labour, which have disastrous economic consequences.

The operating leverage has increased due to hyper-optimization of the system as well as financial leverage is also very high.

I think a wave of corporate crisis is about to take place due to the isolation measures and the collapse of demand, as we have never seen before and large numbers of layoffs.

I don't think all this will come out this year. It could pull out for three years with a furious bull market correction in between.

When everything starts up again for real, I think it's going to be based on different principles, decentralized and open-source machine tools and using 3D printing. Manufacturing will pick up in the US and UK.

Everything is going to slow down. Trains will be back. Probably there is hardly more air travel in all these years than we do today. What can change Maybe the airship? A steampunk future - the artist is the antennae of a civilization.

On 1 July 2016, I wrote a memorandum that the patterns I had observed suggested something difficult to imagine would lead to previously unseen levels of geopolitical uncertainty - a Carrington event, a World War, or an epidemic. Should be I wish I could remember why but I thought everybody would be eyeing Britain. I think the former appears, though still very early in external expressions and the latter is probably going to be true as well. Why will everyone keep an eye on Britain? Maybe we develop an answer. It is worth remembering that the answers to some types of problems surpass mere human capabilities. We need miracles.

The way there is going to be extremely difficult. The setback will be led by the corporate sector, but it will spread over time to the financial sector.

Chinese banks are giving credit to the corporate sector for facing the bandh. It is going to be very wrong in time and I think you will see a blast due to the malaise that has arisen in the last few years. This may be nothing for this year, although I do not know.

The reason for the isolation and intensification of the West will be that there will simply not be enough beds concerning the number of very ill people and once it worsens, it would be politically impossible not to take drastic segregation measures, even if It will crush the economy.

Winter is coming, and it's not going to be easy.

Things do not appear in a straight line. It sounds to me like March 2008. Maybe there is a big announcement by the end of March and whatever is less, we may be alright for a while. But I don't think autumn and winter will be a lot of fun.

We need a miracle…

B.) Probably yes. The reason behind this is that the 2008 recession was mainly due to the huge demand in the economy. The good thing then was that people were going to offices and their working places even in times of crisis due to being locked up.

But due to the negative spillover effect of COVID-19, the current crisis was caused by both supplies as well as demand shock.

Demand is declining, either because people are not going out to buy anything (except essential items) or due to lock down some of them have lost their jobs or are being knocked unconscious by their employers, thus their There is less settlement income on hand.

In the current crisis, the supply of goods has also been heavily shut down due to lockdown and disruption of supply chains. This difference may make the current crisis worse than GFC 2008. The epicentre of this epidemic is in China and Wuhan is the main industrial centre supplying the necessary components for many multinationals. Thus the complete closure of Wuhan Province made it difficult for these companies to produce in the absence of alternative suppliers.

In the case of India, lockdowns in major cities like Mumbai, Pune, Delhi, Bangalore etc., due to migrant workers who worked in industries, started moving towards their villages. Thus, when the lockdown is removed, they can't render 1 day in their own work locations. Thus, it would also hinder production and supply which were largely absent during the 2008 GFC.

Also, at the time of the 2008 GFC, commodity prices were very high and these high commodity prices were supported by commodity-exporting countries like Latin American countries like Venezuela, West Asian countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc., African countries like Nigeria. She was But now due to low prices, these countries are also facing the heat of crisis as many of them have failed to diversify their economies in the last decade.

After the GFC of 2008, China has pumped liquidity of around 8 per cent of GDP to support its economy and thus maintain a growth rate of 7–8% and thus also maintain exports that are in the world. Was also helpful to the economy. This time it is almost impossible for China to initiate such mega excitement as it is already sitting on a large pile of debt.

Furthermore, there is no doubt that this crisis is also a health-related crisis and is killing thousands of people worldwide and bringing the health sector of major economies to its knees.

Thus, earlier in 2008, there was only an economic emergency but now there is both health as well as an economic emergency.